Evidence

Recent Evidence:

• McClatchy reports the formation of the "Iranian directorate" at the Pentagon, adding ““It seems like Iran is becoming the new Iraq," said one U.S. counterterrorism official." http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/news/columnists/warren_p_strobel/15529884.htm
• In the cover story of the May/June Foreign Affairs issue, Bruce Riedel indicates that, [al Qaeda ] might try "to lure the United States into a war with Iran," and that Bin Laden might also be nurturing bolder plans, such as exploiting or even triggering an all-out war between the United States and Iran." http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070501faessay86304-p20/bruce-riedel/al-qaeda-strikes-back.html
• According to the Herald Sun of Australia, the US offered aggressive air patrols over Iranian bases during the hostage incident but the British declined, reportedly asking the US to keep out of the affair and to tone down on military forces activity. http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,,21519759-663,00.html
• former CIA agent Robert Baer writes in Time that influential officials in Middle East are currently experiencing "resigned belief that a war with the U.S. is all but inevitable." http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1604546,00.html?xid=rss-topstories
• according to Chuck Hagel, Republican Senator from Nebraska, the draft 2002 Authorization for Use of Military Force draft sent by the administration to Congress wanted to include the entire Middle East in its authorization for war,

Interviewed by GQ, Hagel was asked: It wasn’t specific to Iraq?
"Oh no. It said the whole region! They could go into Greece or anywhere. I mean, is Central Asia in the region? I suppose! Sure as hell it was clear they meant the whole Middle East. It was anything they wanted. It was literally anything. No boundaries. No restrictions.

They expected Congress to let them start a war anywhere they wanted in the Middle East?"
Yes. Yes. Wide open. We had to rewrite it. Joe Biden, Dick Lugar, and I stripped the language that the White House had set up, and put our language in it. http://men.style.com/gq/features/full?id=content_5326&pageNum=3

• British military sources told the New Statesman, on condition of anonymity, that "the US military switched its whole focus to Iran" as soon as Saddam Hussein was kicked out of Baghdad. It continued this strategy, even though it had American infantry bogged down in fighting the insurgency in Iraq. http://www.newstatesman.com/200702190014
• the Wall Street Journal reports that the administration squandered in opportunity to negotiate with Iran at a recent meeting http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2007/03/10/us-iran-have-meet-and-greet-in-iraq/
• According to Foreign Policy, King Abdallah of Saudi Arabia convinced Ahmadinejad that if Bush opts for an air campaign, Iran would become the target for hundreds of bombing sorties against key installations across the entire country. Not only would Iran be set back several years, but the entire region would most probably explode against all the countries that have sided with the United States. http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/3928
• Retired General Wesley Clark and Iraq war veteran John Soltz of VoteVets have voiced there concern and are urging people to sign a petition to the president urging no military action with Iran http://www.stopiranwar.com/?page_id=5
• Pat Buchanan writes in the American conservative "If Americans sickened by the carnage of Iraq wish to stop an even more disastrous war on Iran, they had best get cracking." http://amconmag.com/2007/2007_02_26/buchanan.html
• Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski (ret.), a veteran of the Pentagon with firsthand experience of the administration’s cherry-picking of intelligence, reveals why Bush thinks he can win a war with Iran, and why few politicians are serious about withdrawal http://www.truthdig.com/interview/item/20070227_pentagon_whistleblower_on_the_coming_war_with_iran/
• According to the New Yorker, Flynt Leverett, a former Bush Administration National Security Council, says "The Administration is trying to make a case that
  Iran is more dangerous and more provocative than the Sunni insurgents in Iraq, "This is all part of the campaign of provocative steps to increase the pressure on Iran. The idea is that at some point the Iranians will respond and then the Administration will have an open door to strike at them." http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/070305fa_fact_hersh
• Vice President Cheney has commented on numerous occasions that an Iran strike is a possibility http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21279082-5005961,00.html
• Bill Kristol, the Weekly Standard editor with influential ties to the White House, believes Bush "could easily build political support for Iran attack at the beginning of 2008, " and that the proper response to the hostages would have been to strike militarily with http://thinkprogress.org/2007/04/08/kristol-williams-iran-crisis/
• the BBC has learned of US contingency plans that involve airstrikes throughout the country, far past Iran's nuclear program http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6376639.stm
• and the Guardian reports that despite denials attack plans are well advanced http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,,2010087,00.html
• In an address to the nation, George W Bush identified Iran as his real target. "We will interrupt the flow of support [to the insurgency in Iraq] from Iran and Syria," he said. "And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq." "Networks" means Iran. http://www.zmag.org/sustainers/content/2007-02/03pilger.cfm
• The Economist devotes the cover page article to the likelihood of a conflict with Iran, urging diplomatic solutions and illustrating the consequences of such military action. "Next stop Iran? - Next stop Iran? America and Iran." The Economist (US) 382.8515 (Feb 10, 2007): 11US. Expanded Academic ASAP. Thomson Gale. University of Washington. 28 Apr. 2007
  < http://find.galegroup.com.offcampus.lib.washington.edu/itx/infomark.do?&contentSet=IAC-Documents&type=retrieve&tabID=T003&prodId=EAIM&docId=A159042275&source=gale&srcprod=EAIM&userGroupName=wash_main&version=1.0 >.
• and Newsweek also publishes a cover story that indicates indicate the strong likelihood of a war with Iran, accidental or not http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17086418/site/newsweek/
• Leonard Weiss and Larry Diamond write in the LA Times that " Congress must stop an attack on Iran" http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-weiss5feb05,0,4991100.story?coll=la-opinion-rightrail
• le Figaro warns against military action by the United States against Iran http://www.watchingamerica.com/lefigaro0000156.shtml
• Paul Starr writes in the American Prospect, an attack on Iran would be catastrophic and would likely set off a global economic crisis vis-à-vis oil, terrorist attacks, retaliation in Iraq, Moqtada al-Sadr, etc. Source Citation: Starr, Paul. "Next stop Iran?" The American Prospect 17.5 (May 2006): 3(1). Expanded Academic ASAP. Thomson Gale. University of Washington. 28 Apr. 2007
  < http://find.galegroup.com.offcampus.lib.washington.edu/itx/infomark.do?&contentSet=IAC-Documents&type=retrieve&tabID=T002&prodId=EAIM&docId=A145570874&source=gale&srcprod=EAIM&userGroupName=wash_main&version=1.0 >.

Positive news?

McClatchy reports that the US is "quietly increasing back channel contacts" with Iran via Swiss negotiators. It reports that the US is using Swiss intermediaries to negotiate the whereabouts of the missing former FBI agent in Iran and discussed the fate of five the Iranian diplomats taken hostage in Iraq. http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/news/special_packages/iran/17128684.htm

For the time being, there's a balance in the favor of those in the administration that favor diplomacy (Gates, Rice), versus those who favor military conflict (Cheney). Apparently, according to the Financial Times, the diplomats have the president’s ear for now. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/fa345746-e223-11db-af9e-000b5df10621.html

That said, let's not forget the Israeli Lebanon incursion -- according to an Israeli newspaper, "Last year, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice talked Olmert into a 48-hour cease-fire during the war with Hezbollah to allow humanitarian relief, but within hours Israeli planes were bombing again, to Rice's surprise and anger. Olmert had received a call, apparently from Cheney's office, telling him to ignore Rice."

http://www.jta.org/cgi-bin/iowa/news/article/20070408pelosisyriatrip.html