The Salient: 11/1/07

The end of the Petroleum Age will lead to hardships, civil unrest at home and abroad and war.

Limiting consumption of petroleum is the only way forward.

More and more scientists and analysts are concluding that Peak Oil has occurred or will do so in the near future.

So what does this actually have to do with you? Won't this help climate change?

The average American consumes nearly 3 gallons of oil a day, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Petroleum is the foundation of modern civilization

Ninety percent of all transportation relies on oil. Everything it affects—all of the world economy—will be hit hard.

Led by two former CIA directors, a high-level “war game” called “Oil Shockwave” concluded the world economy would quickly spiral into recession.

The price of food will skyrocket. Modern agriculture relies on oil for everything from farming to fertilizer to pesticides to delivery.

Ten percent of all oil is used to make everything from aspirin to plastics to microchips to computers, all of which take many times their weight in oil to produce.

Worst of all, future oil shortages will lead to an age of resource conflicts and wars.

The immediate cause of riots in Burma recently, as well as civil unrest in Iran, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, and other states all directly trace back to oil supply.

“Oil is unique in that it is so strategic in nature,” said Dick Cheney in 1999. Energy is truly fundamental to the world's economy. The Gulf War was a reflection of that reality.”

As for climate change, as soon as oil becomes uneconomic, governments will predictably turn to coal.

The IPCC estimates enough coal left to produce a whopping 3500 bil tons of CO2, well past the 400 bil tons ‘allowable’ to prevent catastrophic climate change, according to Dr. Leggett.

This makes recent reports all the more salient.

The Energy Watch Group, based in Germany, just released a report that says global oil production peaked in 2006.

Energy analysts like former Bush administration official Matthew Simmons say we have already peaked globally in’05.

There are evens signs from within the industry itself.

“The era of easy oil is over,” exclaims Chevron in a telling new ad campaign.

Worldwide oil discovery peaked in 1965. The last year we discovered more oil than we consumed was 1981. In 1998, we used three times the oil discovered, according to IHS Energy Group.

The U.S. (Pennsylvania specifically) was once the largest oil producer in the world. Text Box: Graph: The Energy Curve of History? Source: Community Solution Against the wishes of his industry, oil geologist M. King Hubbert calculated that oil supply was finite and soon production in the US would peak.

Within a year of Hubbert's prediction, production in the U.S. peaked in 1970 and has been steadily declining ever since.

Oil exploration experts like Dr. Colin Campbell and Dr. Jeremy Leggett say this is happening (or has already happened) now globally.

Even so, to focus solely on the numbers is missing the point entirely. Hubbert came out with his theory more than 30 years ago and people are still arguing over it.

“[The debate over when exactly ‘the peak’ will hit] is being used as a tool for inaction,” says UW Professor of Forest Resources Kristiina Vogt. The problem needs our attention now.

The solution? First, urgent and decisive attention is required from our leaders.

“We don’t have the luxury of continuing how we have been,” Professor Vogt warns, “or we’re going to have some major conflicts.”

There is no silver bullet solution, Vogt adds. Solutions have to be localized and consumption will have to be cut back by those who use excess amounts.

Petroleum substitutes like tar sands, shale, and heavy oil cannot replace crude oil. Alternative technologies like hydrogen, solar, nuclear, wind, and others offer the potential to help but will not replace oil. In fact, they all need oil for development and implementation.

Environmentally sustainable solutions are urgently needed. For example, Vogt has calculated if we use forest waste biomass for biofuels, we could substitute for 48% of the gasoline used in Washington State.

The government, however, is still dragging its feet, offering gimmicky ‘band-aid’ solutions that appease and subsidize powerful lobbies at the expense of renewable technologies.

Most Americans have never even heard of Peak Oil – and this article barely scratches the surface—but soon they will have to act on it.

“It is only a matter of time before this scenario comes to pass, says Michael T Klare, Professor of Peace and Security at Hampshire College.

“If we act now to limit our consumption of oil and develop non-petroleum energy alternatives, we can face the "twilight" of the Petroleum Age with some degree of hope.”

A Resolution in Support of the American Freedom Agenda Act of 2007

Whereas the United States of America was founded on the principles of Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness; and

Whereas[AG1] the Founding Fathers enshrined checks and balances in the Constitution to protect against government abuses and to derail ill-conceived domestic or foreign endeavors¹; and

Whereas[AG2] checks and balances have withered since 9/11 and an alarming concentration of power has been accumulated in the presidency based on a[AG3] desire to permanently alter the equilibrium of power between the three branches of government^1,2; and

Whereas[AG4] the post-9/11 challenges to checks and balances are unique in the Nation’s history because the “war on global terrorism” has no discernable end¹; and

Whereas the unprecedented constitutional powers claimed by the President since 9/11 cited national security issues but have been asserted for non-national security purposes^{1, 3, 4}; and

Whereas experts like Jack Cloonan, former FBI agent assigned to the Usama bin Laden unit in New York, state that global terrorism can be thwarted, deterred, and punished through muscular application of law enforcement measures and prosecutions in Federal civilian courts in lieu of “extraordinary rendition,” military commissions, or military law^1,5; and

Whereas United States citizen Jose Padilla was subject to 43 months of isolation and tortured to the point of brain damage before ever being charged with a crime, thereby being denied “The Privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus” (Article I, Section 9, Clause 2) and other constitutionally protected rights^6,7; and

Whereas torture of “enemy combatants,” a designation given by the order of the President without oversight, is sanctioned at United States prisons like Guantanamo Bay as well as United States prisons operated abroad^8,9; and

Whereas “secret evidence” is routinely administered in the military tribunals that take place at United States prisons like Guantanamo Bay¹⁰; and

Whereas the current administration has secretly conducted wiretaps of communication devices belonging to United States citizens without traditional warrants or court orders even well before 9/11^11,12; and

Whereas the current administration has sent numerous individuals, such as Bisher al-Rawi and Maher Arar to third-party countries with the full knowledge they would be tortured, and has claimed evidence against Maher Arar et al., to be guarded as a state secret and not to be released publicly;^{13, 14, 15, 16, 17}; and

Whereas the President has used more than 750 signing statements, declaring his intent to disregard provisions of a bill he has signed into law because he alone believes they are unconstitutional^{1, 18}; and

Whereas the Justice Department has faced pressure to charge the New York Times under the Espionage Act of 1917 in an attempt to prevent publication of information critical of the administration¹⁹; and

Whereas Dr. Ron Paul introduced H. R. 3835, A Bill to Restore the Constitution’s Checks and Balances and Protections Against Government Abuses as Envisioned by the Founding Fathers, in the 1^st Session of the 110^th Congress; therefore

Be it resolved by the ASUW

That the ASUW supports H. R. 3835, the American Freedom Agenda Act of 2007, which does the following¹:

1. Repeals the Military Commissions Act of 2006

2. Authorizes the establishment of military commissions for the trials of war crimes only in places of active hostilities against the United States where an immediate trial is necessary to preserve fresh evidence or to prevent local anarchy

3. Prohibits the detention of any individual as an unlawful enemy combatant absent proof by substantial evidence that the individual has directly engaged in active hostilities against the United States, and further provides that no United States citizen shall be detained as an unlawful enemy combatant

4. Provides any individual detained as an enemy combatant by the United States with the right of habeas corpus

5. Prohibits all civilian and military courts of the United States from admitting as evidence statements extracted from the defendant by torture or coercion

6. Prohibits all Federal agencies from gathering foreign intelligence in contravention of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (50 U.S.C. 1801 et seq.).

7. Initiates a challenge to the constitutionality of a presidential signing statement

8. Prohibits any officer or agent of the United States from kidnapping, imprisoning, or torturing any person abroad without judicial oversight, but allows kidnapping if it is undertaken with the intent of bringing the kidnapped person for prosecution or interrogation to gather intelligence before a tribunal that meets international standards of fairness and due process

9. Exempts journalists from the provisions of the Espionage Act of 1917 and lifts the prohibition on publishing information received from the executive branch or Congress, unless the publication would cause direct, immediate, and irreparable harm to the national security of the United States

10. Prevents the President or any other member of the executive branch from using secret evidence to designate an individual or organization with a United States presence as a foreign terrorist or foreign terrorist organization for purposes of the criminal law or otherwise imposing criminal or civil sanctions; and

That the ASUW urges all members of the Washington State Congressional Delegation to support and cosponsor H. R. 3825; and

That this resolution be forwarded to all members of the Washington State Congressional Delegation.

[AG1]Whereas unchecked power by any branch of government leads to oppressive transgressions on individual freedoms and ill-considered government policies¹; and

[AG2]Whereas checks and balances make the Nation safer by preventing abuses [AG2] that would be exploited by Al Qaeda to boost terrorist recruitment, would deter foreign governments from cooperating in defeating international terrorism, and would make the American people reluctant to support aggressive counter-terrorism measures¹; and

[AG3]hyper-inflated fears of international terrorism and

[AG4]Whereas Congressional oversight of the executive branch is necessary to prevent secret government, which undermines self-government and invites lawlessness and maladministration¹; and

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11/6/07

We Are Married to Oil and the Breakup Will Be Ugly.

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